Magazines Archives - 2007 May

Chinese consumer market set to be world’s second
Story 6

CHINA is poised to become the world’s second-largest consumer-goods market after the US by 2015, said a recent Credit Suisse study.

The bank estimated the Chinese would account for 14.1% (and the US, 37.7%) of total consumption among major economies, namely the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, Italy, France, Spain, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, Australia, India and Russia. This a far cry from China’s 5.4% global share, versus the US’ 42%, in 2006 which tied this Asian market with Italy in fifth place, said the bank.

According to Vincent Chan, head of research with Credit Suisse, the proportion of Chinese consumption would grow to 8.6% by 2010, ranking it third after the US and Japan, and then to 21.8% by 2020. The projections were based on the bank’s poll of 2,700 survey respondents in the major Chinese cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an and Shenyang.

However, despite strong economic figures, with GDP growing at 10.7%, the survey showed that China’s budgeted and actual spending on many consumer items had declined last year from 2005. The study further found personal income rising at a slower pace than GDP, although the income growth of those aged 20-30 has kept pace with that of the national economy.

While the bank expects the growing Chinese economy, with its expanding population and accelerating urbanisation, to spur domestic consumption, it forecasts a continual decline in consumption in Japan, Germany, Italy and the UK.